Author Archives: jkuhns

Can Money Buy Proficiency?

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A week or so ago I published a blog post boldly stating that you could probably sort districts by their aid ratio from high to low and get a pretty accurate projection of how their PSSA reading and Math scores would look.   One of my loyal readers, Rogue Anthropologist, inquired about whether any such research was available.  Being interested in statistics and more so probabilities, I set out to determine how accurate my blurted out hypothesis had been.

What I found was not an exact, one to one correspondence but it is pretty telling. Using 2012 PSSA scores in reading and Math and district aid ratios (AR) for 2012 I was able to get a pretty good picture of district scores in relation to the economic status of the community.  I do want to go on record as saying this isn’t a statistical analysis.  It is a collection of facts based on the data.  I also want to clarify that when I talk about making Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) I am talking about what we call in education “making the number.”  In other words I did not take into account whether districts made AYP using confidence interval, Safe Harbor, Growth Model or a combination of any of the above.  I simply used 78% for math and 81% in reading – “the numbers.”  Also, I will note that I used only district totals not individual schools.  For example, Central Dauphin School District is lumped together although it is made up of many different schools including two high schools.  As well, the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh school systems were grouped as one district.

I took all of the school districts in the state and order them from lowest AR (.1500) to the highest (.8814).  I then divided the entire lot into quartiles.  There are 500 school districts in the state of Pennsylvania.  I eliminated one, Bryn Athyn, because they don’t actually educate any students in their district.  Look it up!  It’s pretty interesting.  So, of the 499, since I was looking primarily at the top and bottom quartiles, there were 249 in the middle two quartiles and 125 in the top and bottom.

In the area of Math statewide 62% of the school districts made AYP.  That is important to know as a yardstick for the rest of the data.  School districts in the top quartile according to their AR made AYP 90% of the time.  Conversely, schools in the bottom quartile only made AYP 26% of the time.  That means that a rich school district is about three and a half times more likely to make AYP than a poor one.  To take it a step further, the schools in the top two quartiles – I gave them number 250 – made AYP 80% of the time while the schools in the bottom half made AYP only 42% of the time.

On the Reading PSSA only 28% of the school districts statewide made “the number.”  That seems to have really skewed the numbers based on AR.  In reading only 2% of the schools in the bottom quartile made AYP.  Of the top quartile school districts 70% made AYP.  Some of this in my professional opinion can be attributed to poor households being more apt to be language-poor and those students tend to come to school with fewer background experiences.  When you look at this information as a 50/50 split, the bottom half of school districts only made AYP 8% of the time and the top half made AYP 48% of the time.

There are of course exceptions to every rule.  Windber Area School District and Cambria Heights School District made AYP in both subjects despite ARs of .7324 and .7241 respectively.  Inversely, 14 school districts did not make AYP in either subject even though their ARs ranked in the top quartile.  Pequea Valley School District had the lowest AR of any school not to make either number; .2554.

In addition to economic indicators, I was also interested in determining other factors rather than the quality of teaching that may determine performance on the PSSA.  Research has been done about how the education of the mother impacts achievement.  When I look at that statistic I tend to think that it leads back to the affluence of the family.  Students in privileged circumstances would more likely have two highly educated parents than students living in poverty.

One thought that I have heard, and this is probably do to the poor performance of Pennsylvania’s urban areas, is that the percentage of minorities in a district has an impact on achievement and PSSA. The data on the percentage of minorities in a district is interesting but not very conclusive.  In the area of Math school district that have 10% or greater minorities were proficient 50% of the time (remember that the entire state only had an AYP rate of 62%).  On the opposite end, only 57% of the schools with 2.5% or fewer minorities achieved the 78% threshold.  In Reading the discrepancy is greater but weighted towards the districts with a higher number of minorities, with 33% of school districts with 10% or more minorities making the 81% necessary for AYP and the school districts with 2.5% or fewer minorities making AYP only 13% of the time.  Bear in mind that statewide only 28% of school districts made AYP in the area of Reading.

At the behest of my superintendent I also looked at scores based on the size of the school district.  This is a tough measure when used for measuring the entire district.  The reason being is that the statistic does not take into account the size of individual schools.  For instance the Pittsburgh Public School System, the second largest in the state, has nine high schools to serve 6000 students and the School District of Philadelphia, the largest school district in the state, has 55 high schools to serve roughly 38,000 students.  With those kinds of numbers it is possible to have some high school s doing very well and some high schools doing very poorly.  Anyway, here’s what the number say:  When broken down into quartiles, the top quartile – the largest schools – were proficient 45% of the time in Reading and 71% of the time in Math.  Thirteen percent of schools in the fourth quartile were proficient in Reading and 50% in Math; much to the chagrin of my superintendent.  I’ll have some good news though for him as our district broke many of the rules.

At this point it looks like rich, white – but not too white, large schools have a decided advantage in my personal; race to the top.  Let’s look a little closer though.  Where exactly are the schools that are making it and does that have any impact on their goal of Proficiency?  Well, I’m glad you asked.  There might just be a link.

The National Center for Educational Statistics breaks down districts into categories based on where they are located, how close they are located to a city and the size of the city within the nearest proximity.  Following is the data that I collected on those categories:

  Example Number #Proficient-R %Proficient-R #Proficient-M %Proficient-M
Small City Reading 13 2 15 3 23
Mid-sized City Erie 2 0 0 0 0
Large City Pittsburgh 2 0 0 0 0
All City   17 2 12 3 19
             
Suburb of large city McKeesport 165 78 47 107 66
Suburb of mid-size city Harbor Creek 21 8 38 18 86
Suburb of small city Pottstown 19 12 63 7 37
All Suburb   205 98 48 132 64
             
Distant Town Huntingdon 36 0 0 11 42
Fringe Town Brownsville 74 16 22 47 50
Remote Town Dubois Area 10 1 10 6 60
All Towns   120 17 15 64 58
             
Distant Rural Twin Valley 85 9 11 47 55
Fringe Rural Yough 77 19 25 48 62
Remote Rural Galeton 12 0 0 5 42
All Rural   174 28 16 100 57

As you can see from the data, it is definitely a benefit to live in a suburb especially the suburb of a large or mid-size city.  Those two categories along with the All Suburb categories were the only categories to have a higher percentage of district proficient than the state averages listed previously.  The worst place to live and therefore go to school is obviously in the city with the lowest percentages of all groups.For more information on what each of these categories mean see the NCES website.

With a little dime store analysis you can determine why the suburbs do so well.  Or at least generate an additional hypothesis.

For the conclusion of my hypothesis, without formal statistical analyses, I would say that I was pretty close to accurate.  More affluent school districts are almost three and half times more probable to be proficient on the Math PSSA than their poorer counterparts and more than 35 times more probable to be proficient on the Reading PSSA.  Put another way:  if you live in the top quarter of the wealthiest district in the state your child’s school will have a 9 in 10 probability of being proficient in Math and a 7 in 10 probability of being proficient in Reading.  In opposition, districts that comprise the poorest quarter of all Pennsylvania districts will have a 1 in 4 probability of being proficient in Math and a 1 in 50 probability of being proficient in Reading.  As AYP expectations go up in 2013, to 91% in Reading and 89% in Math, look for those numbers to change.

False Proxy + False Proxy = Your Life

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Inspiration to write can come from a lot of places. For me it comes quite often from Seth Godin‘s blog and a friend who goads me into connecting his work to education.

Today Mr. Godin blogged about false proxy traps. You can check out his blog for details. In a nutshell a false proxy is when a someone measures a component of something that is difficult to measure in order to justify the entire product. Good example: measuring the quality of a police force by how many people are put in jail. This measure would not take into account that a good police force may limit crime by there mere presence or that they are exemplary at solving problems. Crazy example: measuring the power of the Republican Party by watching Fox News exclusively.

Everyone may not agree but the forced high stakes testing required by NCLB is just such a trap. The idea of the testing program is to determine the quality of a school and its staff. Make no mistake about it. These tests, differently labeled in each state, were never meant to test the knowledge of students. The false proxy comes in when we try to take one test, administer it to thousands of students, and then compare them across a wide breadth of cultures, economies, and immeasurable demographics. My guess is that a district’s aggregate PSSA score can just as accurately determine the median income of the school’s coverage area as it can the success of the school. They could also pretty accurately determine the number of parents who attend parent conferences. The first thought would be easy to prove. Take every school and list them from high to low based on aid ratio (market value/personal income) and then make another list and sort them from low to high on district average PSSA score. I’d be willing to bet there is a high degree of comparability. It’s all public knowledge; give it a whirl!

So, I think we have shown pretty accurately that the PSSA is a false proxy for determining the quality of a school. Don’t get me wrong; some teacher’s should find a new career path. But I can compare scores of teacher’s that I work with who have abilities that are across the board in terms of quality instruction and the one’s that have limited skills have students who do just as well as the distinguished teacher’s students.

Second false proxy: The new Pennsylvania teacher evaluation model. This is even simpler. Charlotte Danielson developed this model to assist in improving the quality of teaching. Never, and the company developing the evaluation tool for Pennsylvania has admitted this, did she intend for the rubric to be diminished to a number. Statistically speaking, you can’t take a measure that is qualitative and quantify it. That is, however, what the Pennsylvania Department of Education intends to do. A tool built to determine the strengths and weaknesses of a teacher and guide him or her to being a distinguished educator will be used to measure his or her effectiveness.

Not only will it water all of this high quality information down to a single number but that number will count as 50% of a teacher’s – and eventually an administrator’s – annual evaluation. Throw in that another 15-30% of the annual evaluation will be determined by PSSA scores and you have a conglomeration of false proxies and statistical fallacies. Goog luck! Two years of low scores and poor observations or probably two years of average observations and average PSSA scores and you may be looking for a job – and me too!

 

Question this Answer

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This is a response to a post by Jan Simson over at Inspiration Avenue.  His question, “how would you make the education system better?” is something that I have written about in a roundabout way over the last several months.  

I’ll start my restating that I think that what education needs is a reinvention.  Starting from a vacuum and determining the best way to teach kids.  When I think about this now I think about the times in our lives when we learn things without a teacher.  Take for instance walking.  Does anyone really ever teach us to walk or do we just eventually walk?  Sure there are encouraging words and opportunities to walk provided.  We reached out fora hand, leg or table for stability.  Someone buys us a decent pair of shoes to make sure that those first few steps go smoothly and if we’re lucky, someone sets us down on a nice, soft surface so that falling doesn’t hurt so much.  No one ever says, “Okay, in today’s lesson we are going to talk about feet.  Feet are your primary means of transportation.  Once we learn about feet we will go on to standard PK.1.2 and you will begin to understand how those feet attach to legs.” In there was definitely no side trip to the history of shoes and footwear around the world.

What if we took those same ideas and put them into practice in education?  Give students opportunities to learn about what interests them and encourage them along the way.  Provide students with the resources that they need to be successful in their endeavors.  And provide the support that they need along the way.

The truth is that in the 21st century there is no way that we will be able to teach all of the content that currently exists.  Our jobs must be to teach students how to access the content, think critically about what they find and to solve the problems that they encounter along the way. The fact is that the jobs that we believe we are preparing our students for won’t even exist in 10, 15 or 20 years.  The skills of thinking critically and solving problems will be necessary in any future job. The character traits of courage and perseverance won’t hurt either.

If I had to sum it up in a bulleted list:

  • Teach students to be problem solvers.  Really that’s why we learn to walk. To solve the problem of it taking so long to get to what we want.
  • Encourage students along the way.
  • Teach students to be critical thinkers.
  • Encourage them to take chances.
  • Provide them with the tools that they need to access content.

 

The Low Hanging Fruit of Education

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This year the elementary school that I lead made adequate yearly progress in every category. I’m not bragging; just stating a fact. In fact, our school has made adequate yearly progress every year. That sounds like great news, headline grabbing stuff in a small town. Unfortunately, the way the system works, that is not necessarily great news.

Next year we will have to be 89% proficient in Math and 91% proficient in Reading. We are a very small school. In the grade span that we are responsible for, 3-5, we will test approximately 180 students. That means that no more than 18 students can be basic or below basic in Math and 16 in Reading (The state doesn’t round up)

Unfortunately the low hanging fruit has been picked. All of those things that don’t cost money but suck all of the knowledge out of students. You know them because your school has done them: increase instructional time, align to standards, eliminate the “unnecessary” subjects, teach to the test. Done!

In order to harvest the higher fruit everyone needs more resources. Even a picker needs a ladder. To really get to those five or six students that are on the fringe we need to extend the day, offer after school resources to the economically disadvantaged, and engage more parents in the educational lives of their children. Luckily we’re tall and we probably only need a step stool. But even a step stool costs money. If you read the papers you know there ain’t none of that.

Throw in a complete retooling of the standards that will be instituted next testing cycle; which by the way have not been approved by PA yet; and you have an equation that can’t possibly balance. Keep in mind that while the common core standards are indeed a step in the right direction, somehow it will be necessary to increase the rigor in third grade to the extent that one year can replace the change in rigor designed to be achieved in four years. Never mind the impact on the sixth grade curriculum that needs to make up for 7 years of changes in rigor in less than 180 days.

The projections are that over 80% of the schools in Pennsylvania will not make adequate yearly progress in 2013. Those were the projections before schools lost funding and the final transition to common core was approved. If the projection for 2013 is 80% the projection for 2014 must be close to 90%.

Let me run this idea past you. In Pennsylvania is education the low hanging fruit of the commonwealth? Is it just simple to set up schools to fail under the guise of keeping taxes low? Is their a benefit to the citizenry in the privatization of K-12 schools? No ladder needed! Just hanging out there like Tom Corbett’s personal piñata.

But, that’s another blog post all together. Just let me say this though, those guys from Commonwealth Connections Academy with their matching backpacks and polo shirts (paid for with your tax dollars) seemed to be sleeping significantly better than most administrators that I know!

Reinventing the Wheel

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Last week I wrote about inventing in a vacuum and why it is sometimes important to improve based on the nothingness rather than the knowledge that you have.  That led me to one thought:  What about the impression that we should not “Reinvent the Wheel.”

“Good point,” I commend myself.

But not everything is a wheel.  The wheel is quite possibly beyond the capacity for improvement.  You can’t make it rounder.  There are things that it makes no sense to reinvent.  They have already been perfected; most likely in their first incarnation.  Even in a vacuum you couldn’t come up with a better design.

If some things were never reinvented they wouldn’t exist.  The first incarnation of the light bulb was an utter failure.  Some things are reinvented to keep up with demands.   The first incarnation of every form of transportation would not survive modernity.

I can’t think of many “wheels” in education.  Maybe the alphabet?  I don’t think there is a better order or if a different order makes it better.  But, given all the sounds in the English language and a vacuous state in which to create a new alphabet, surely you could come up with something better or at least different.

My point is in education as well as in the rest of the world we need to be able to analyze the parts of the whole and determine what needs reinvented and what is already beyond improvement.  Not only that but what things need to be created out of emptiness.

I don’t think we need a twist off cap on a wheel.

Sometimes it Takes a Vacuum

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At times it has to be necessary to start completely from scratch.  To begin as if the problem you are solving has never been tackled before.

I had this thought while looking at my computer keyboard.  Why does it not sit vertically?  Why are the letters in that order?  Has anyone ever taken a shot at designing a key board from the vacuum stage?  I know other people have developed different key placements but basically its still the same thing.

Two examples I thought of are the 12 pack of soda and the orange juice container.  Someone at some point said the way that we design soda boxes is not congruent with the way they need to be stored.  So, somebody changed the shape.  Now try to find a 12 pack of soda that doesn’t come in a “fridge case.”  Someone also asked why after generations do we still fuss with that damn cardboard opening on the quart of orange juice.  So they put a twist off cap on them.  Now its impossible to sell a quart of juice without the twist off.

Now those examples may not be completely created out of a vacuum.  But you get my point.  Change is hard but sometimes the change is so beneficial that everyone forgets the predecessor.

Which leads me to this:  Pennsylvania is in the midst of “creating” an evaluation tool for educators.  Did anyone think of taking a blank piece of paper and writing down what makes a great teacher?  Looking at Clint Eastwood’s empty chair and picturing the most awesome teacher ever and finding ways to evaluate those characteristics. Hell, maybe that’s where we need to go with the whole education system. It’s been too long that we have been patching things together and hoping that it works.  It’s been too long that we have negotiated away a quality education for kids.  Give a little here and a little there.  Maybe we just need to put a twist off cap on this thing and dump it all out.

Running with Life

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It’s become my habit to think of a post while running.  I’ve banished the headphones in favor of think time.  Today while running I thought I might write about, well…running.

I had these two thoughts about how running is analogous to life:

1.  Failure is not the end of the road. When I started running it was basically because I had become a slovenly old man at the age of only 25.  I was never very athletically oriented although I wasn’t completely uncoordinated.  I always enjoyed sports I just wasn’t that good at them.  I started out not able to run a mile without stopping.  Eventually I worked up to 3 miles and could do that in 27 minutes.  Nine minute miles!  I was amazed.  So I signed up for my first race and averaged nine minute miles.  Little did I know that people could actually maintain a pace of 5 minute miles for the entire 3.1 miles.  Not only that but my finishing time of 27:56 wasn’t even middle of the pack.  I got beat by women; old women; old fat women and a nearly 80 year old guy who took one step and kind of jerked his leg around for the second step.  Talk about a blow to the ego!  What I didn’t do though was quit.  I stuck with it and am still doing it 20 years later.  I worked up to the marathon distance and did that twice.  I ran a sub 23 minute 5k which puts you close to the front of the middle of the back and a 47:47 10K at the edge of 42.  I even managed to run a 6:10 mile in my early 40s.  None of those accomplishments put me in the record books.  Most of them didn’t even get me an age group medal but they are among my proudest accomplishments.  The point is that failure is how you learn.  If I wouldn’t have ever run a race I wouldn’t have known that the body is capable of more.  Trying and failing is way better than not trying. As John Wooden said, “If you’re not making mistakes, then you’re not doing anything.  I’m positive that a doer makes mistakes,”

2.  Things change but the goal remains the same:  In running things are always changing.  You get older, you get slower, your favorite trail gets roadblocked or, god forbid, they build a sewer plant in the middle of your daily running route – true story, not along the route but right in the damn middle of the alley.  Sometimes you have to be flexible.  You have to realize what your body can handle and you have to adapt.  Run a little slower, run more easy runs, find a new route or a way around the obstacles.  Adapting is the key here.  Not quitting, not changing your goal but overcoming and excelling. The world is going to change.  Until you recognize that fact you are stuck.  

If we don’t change, we don’t grow.

If we don’t grow, we aren’t really living. 
Gail Sheehy 

But Then Again, No….

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Elton John nailed it in Your Song.  It’s not about what you do it’s about how and why you do it.  What you do with passion will be received passionately.  What you do with conviction will make others believe.  When you give someone your heart in song or words; sculpture or paint; or travelling show potions, you give a piece of yourself. A piece much larger than its representation.

You can use this analogy in every facet of your life.  When you act with passion and conviction you are the most poignant version of yourself.

Live Confidently

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In my opinion, the single most dragging effect on our success is lack of confidence.  Everyone has inside of them a gift, some treasure that they are meant to share, some ability to change the world or at least the neighborhood, some nugget of greatness to share.  Nothing is sadder than to see the giftedness in a young person who believes they have the inability to flourish.

I’m not talking about boasting or arrogance.  What I’m talking about is sharing your truth; your bit of greatness. Our society surely is to blame. Anyone can be a critic.  Anonymous webcrawlers, overzealous parents, unfulfilled peers. 

I count myself as one.  I’m not sure what my gift is but I know that I have a lack of confidence in most things that I set out to do.  The fear of success or ridicule or not being good enough leads to the reality of doing nothing.

Anybody can do nothing.  Anybody can avoid ridicule.  Anybody can avoid pain.  Whether you’re a religious person who believes that everyone is gifted and that gift should not be wasted or a non religious person who believes that living is the thing; that sucking the very marrow out of life is the protocol.    Either way:  rejoice; live.  Be confident.

Disregard for Math

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One of my biggest pet peeves is when people misuse math.  It took me many years to get out of the habit of correcting people’s English, a habit that I learned from having an English teacher for a father.  Now, my bane had moved toward’s the mathematical illiterate.

Here are some examples:  Bill Cowher, former coach of the Steelers used to say quite often, “He will be out a minimum of 4 to 6 weeks.”  Well, Bill, no he won’t.  He will be out a MINIMUM of 4 weeks.  He may be out longer than that but he will be out at least 4 weeks.  Add to this approximately 10- 12 months.  For my money that’s approximately 11 months.  Maybe more maybe less.

I heard in a commercial recently that something was more perfect.  Impossible!  Perfect is as good as it gets.  Throw in the duplicity of a perfect circle and I may go off the deep end.  If it isn’t perfect it simply isn’t a circle!  Much like being perfectly square!  With apologies to Pat Boone, it’s either perfect or its not a square.

Don’t even get me started on the misinterpretation of political polls! Or calculating odds!

My point is that these things make me nuts for a reason:  As much as I like to be creative in my writing and thinking, there are times when preciseness is called for and laziness in speech is not acceptable.  Language is our most prolific form of communication and a little forethought would be appreciated.